Knock on wood

To quote myself a few weeks ago:

My estimates were all based on having $340k-$350k in my accounts by my birthday, and I'll still be in that window even if the market slows down significantly (I'm currently getting 15-20% returns and budgeting for 9%).

Of course, the world has to throw a curve ball.  The recent stock market "corrections" over the last couple of weeks have, of course, knocked off something like 10% of the value it had.  I haven't taken quite that much of a hit, but I'm now down $15k in my accounts than I was about a month ago, about a 5% loss.  Now, that's not huge, but it throws off the numbers I was looking at.  It also isn't necessarily done: the markets are down 300 points at the moment, though that's less than they were down a few hours ago.

I'm probably still okay.  I mean, I'm making a lot of assumptions about the future - there's no choice - but most are fairly reasonable.  I always assumed a 7% average annual return over decades; individual yearly fluctuations don't matter much.  I also have to assume I'm keeping my job part-time for two years of school and forking over $22k twice (what a UC would cost, roughly and accounting for taxes and deductions).  I also assume that, coming out of college, I can get a job making slightly more than my part-time here would pay.

Based on all that, I'll still have over $2m in the bank at 65.  But that's assuming the market settles down and has something close to a 7% average growth for the rest of the year; that's not guaranteed, but it's also not unreasonable.  If things get worse, well, I'll still be okay to a point, but it might mean having to pump in even more money once I come out of school.

Come, my friends

... t'is not to late to seek a newer world.
Push off, and sitting well in order smite
The sounding furrows; for my purpose holds
To sail beyond the sunset, and the baths
Of all the western stars, until I die. ...

-- Ulysses, Alfred (Lord Tennyson)

It's in

Just submitted my app to Caltech.  Still have to submit the test proctor form and take the tests (due by mid-March), but the app itself is in.

It's a long shot; I know that.  Hell, even if I'm accepted, I can't afford to go unless I get some significant financial aid (and *not* loans; thanks, but I'm not going to be a 44-year-old with $200k in fresh undischargeable student loans).  But, as they say of the lottery, you can't win if you don't play.

Part of submitting it is being willing to accept what everyone's been telling me: that I'm actually almost an ideal candidate for such a school.  I don't see it, but I'm also looking at my life through the filter of having lived as me for decades.  I know my perceptions of myself tend to be biased downward, and so I'm willing to accept that I may be wrong here.

It's also essentially a no-risk situation.  All I'm out is the $70 for the app itself and maybe $10 in the cost of transcripts.  So, we'll see.

I've started looking at housing prices near various schools.  Even if I keep my current job part-time, I'll need a roommate or subsidized housing.  That's one of the bigger deals when (think positive, right?) I get an acceptance from anyone.  I mean, tuition coverage would be great, but in some ways it's the housing that is more important.  Like, for a UC, I've got the money in IRAs to pay for tuition, but I can't use that money for housing - actually, as I write this, I'm not sure that's true.  I remember seeing something about expenses for tertiary education including housing costs.  I'll have to look that up.

I don't mind having a roommate, though winnowing down my stuff (or putting a lot of it in storage) would be more necessary with a roommate than living on my own.  But subsidized housing would just be easier overall.

Another angle on that is that my gay-couple friends who just bought a house live about 16 miles down the street from one of the private schools.  They've been nudging me about coming and living with them if I get in there.  Now, honestly, I'm not sure how serious that nudging is, and they've got a significant amount of their own stuff to deal with.  But it's a potential option.  It's far enough I'd likely have to drive (there's a bus, but the ride is about an hour) or get a bike (which wouldn't be all that much faster and, well, LA drivers and bikes aren't a good combination).  I'd rather be in walking distance, but that's when things get expensive.

Oh well, baby steps.  I've started cleaning my apartment.  I need to figure out how to get rid of my guest bed, since nowhere I'm going to go will have the space for it.  The only other major furniture items are my dining room table (which I like but, frankly, didn't cost that much and probably wouldn't work out anywhere) and my bed (which is probably also not going to fit wherever I go, but there's more likelihood of that).  oh, and my bookshelf, but that's modular and could be used for a lot of things in a lot of spaces.  Everything else either comes apart easily or could fit in the back of my Eclipse.

Not having bought a ton of furniture may end up being in my favor.